What proportion of chemical leaks provoke mass hysteria?

Mass hysteria and not leaked chemicals was the likely cause of the symptoms experienced by those exposed in 16 per cent of hundreds of chemical leaks recorded in England and Wales between January 2007 and April 2008.

That's according to an analysis by Lisa Page and colleagues at the Institute of Psychiatry of 280 chemical leaks recorded by the Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards based at Chilton in Oxfordshire.

Otherwise known as 'mass psychogenic illness', mass hysteria is the occurrence of physical symptoms such as dizziness and nausea in more than one person, with no identifiable organic cause.

Page's team presented expert toxicologists and medics with vignettes of the incidents (plus further information where necessary) and had them rate the possibility that the documented symptoms, when present, of those exposed could have been caused by the chemicals involved. Among the incidents were a spillage of phosphoric and hydrochloric acid outside a domestic residence, and the opening of a container from South East Asia at a distribution centre (further examples).

In total, the experts' verdict was that 19 of the incidents involved physical symptoms that were most likely caused not by the suspected leak but by mass psychogenic illness - that equates to 7 per cent of all incidents analysed and 16 per cent of those in which physical symptoms were reported.

Incidents at schools and hospitals and those involving reports of an odour were more likely to trigger mass psychogenic illness. By contrast, factors related to emergency response such as the presence of police or paramedics were not relevant.

This is the first ever attempt to provide a formal estimate of the prevalence of mass psychogenic illness within a given context. 'Our findings suggest that mass psychogenic illness is an important differential diagnosis in a substantial minority of chemical incidents,' the researchers concluded.

'The importance of early diagnosis rests in the considerable difference in management [of mass psychogenic illness] compared with other chemical incidents,' the researchers added. 'Mass psychogenic illness is best managed by reassurance, separating symptomatic from non-symptomatic psychogenic persons, minimising unnecessary medical procedures and providing a credible explanation for symptoms. In contrast, casualties from mass toxic incidents may require decontamination, antidotes, and invasive medical care.'
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Page, L., Keshishian, C., Leonardi, G., Murray, V., Rubin, G., & Wessely, S. (2010). Frequency and Predictors of Mass Psychogenic Illness. Epidemiology DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181e9edc4

Link to Psychologist magazine feature article on dancing plagues and mass hysteria.

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Developing flexible and adaptive leaders for an age of uncertainty (Consulting Psychology Journal: Research and Practice).

Computational models of the brain (NeuroImage).

In Memoriam: Stewart H. Hulse - one of the founders of research on animal cognition (Learning and Motivation).

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Animal models of amnesia (Neuropsychologia).

Football fouls more likely to be given when play heads left

A simple perceptual bias could influence football referees' judgements about whether a foul occurred or not. That's according to Alexander Kranjec and colleagues, who had 12 football players at the University of Pennsylvania look for half a second each at 268 static images of one player tackling another and decide whether a foul had been committed. Unbeknown to the participants, 134 of the pictures were simply mirror opposites of the other 134.

The key finding was that more fouls (66.5 vs. 63.3 - a statistically significant difference) were judged to have occurred when assessing the images in which movement was captured in a leftward direction than when assessing the same images mirror-reversed and therefore featuring implied rightward motion. The researchers think this anomaly may have to do with our bias (at least in cultures that read from left to right) for rightward motion. Motion from right to left is perceived as less natural and this may be responsible for influencing judgements about fouls during play in that direction. Apparently film directors exploit this same bias by having villains arrive on-screen from the right.

Kranjec's team said their finding has implications for refereeing. The most popular system, known as the 'left diagonal refereeing system' (see picture), in which the referee runs a diagonal axis between the two left-hand corners of the pitch, results in the referee witnessing tackles in both goal areas primarily from a right-to-left perspective, thus making judgments of fouls in these areas more likely - an advantage to attackers. This is okay because it applies to both teams. What's important, Kranjec and colleagues warn, is that the referee doesn't switch to a 'right diagonal system' half-way through a match, potentially penalising a losing side that needs to attack yet no longer enjoys the benefits of this perceptual bias when playing in offensive areas.

'These results ... suggest that the effects of a low-level perceptual mechanisms could alter a decision, change the result of a game and perhaps, the fortunes of nations,' the researchers said.
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Kranjec A, Lehet M, Bromberger B, & Chatterjee A (2010). A sinister bias for calling fouls in soccer. PloS one, 5 (7) PMID: 20628648